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Note no. 383
08.05.2007
NEPAL: G.P Getting Increasingly Isolated on the Issue of Monarchy: Update No. 126
By Dr. S.Chandrasekharan.
In a three-day conclave of the District Presidents of the Nepali Congress funded by the National Democratic Institute in Kathmandu, many senior level leaders pressed for dropping monarchy. In view of the ambivalent attitude shown by G.P.Koirala, some of the senior speakers said that the party will lose its credibility if it did not come up with its stand on monarchy.
Amongst the other parties, even the Nepali Congress (Democratic) appear to be leaning towards abolition of monarchy. Bimalendu Nidhi who is known for his anti monarchy views went to the extent of saying that an entirely new constitution should be written with a complete change in every sector legislative, judicial and executive.
The UML has made known its stand that the eight parties should take just a one point decision on monarchy and that is to abolish it.
The MJF Chairman, Upendra Yadav in his interaction with the Press in India also indicated his partys opposition to monarchy. The NSP has already made known its partys stand of supporting a republic in Nepal.
The Maoists have been most vociferous in demanding that Nepal should be declared a republic immediately. Ananth, the deputy commander of their PLA threatened that people would declare Nepal a republic from the streets. Krishna Bahadur Mahara said that it would be impossible to hold CA elections even in November if the monarchy was not abolished. On the May day Prachanda threatened that they would orgainse a third movement in the country from late May if the interim Parliament delayed the declaration of the republic.
Sensing the seriousness of the situation, G.P. Koirala held political consultations on the 7th of May with the leaders of other parties on a one to one basis. He met Madhav Nepal, Sher Bahadur Deuba and Prachanda. It was decided to have a top-level eight party meeting on Thursday the 10th of May to decide on the poll date, fate of monarchy and smooth running of the House proceedings.
There is a motion already with the Parliament to declare Nepal a monarchy. In the house of 329 MPs currently present, 182 MPs belong to the leftist groups- the Maoists, the UML and others while others have 147. The leftists will get a majority vote in case the motion against the monarchy is to be passed. But it may need two thirds which would mean that another 38 Mps will have to vote for abolition. In all probability they would get two thirds unless both factions of Nepali Congress issue a strong whip.
Will the Maoists be satisfied with the declaration of Nepal as a republic and will they allow the smooth running of the administration till a final political dispensation is arrived at? The answer in our view is a loud No. Declaring Nepal a republic is only a means to their objective and this has given them a chance to rally all the leftist forces together ( united front tactics again). The Maoists will not allow G.P to live in peace and will continue to pile up demands after demands and will ensure that the government continues in an unstable and an unsettled condition. Consider the following incidents in the last week and a half-
* On 1st of May hundreds of armed Maoists stormed the Suiya Police Post in Banke District, imprisoned the policemen on duty including their chief and took away the arms. The attack was led by the local Maoist leader Nand Kishore Pandey. The arms were recovered and the policemen were freed by a rescue team with reinforcements. The attack proved that a large number of trained cadres with arms are outside the barracks.
* Maoists cleared 163 hectares of land of Rani Gaura Womens Community Forest and set up camps for 2000 homeless people as squatters. The government is taking action to evict them. These are well-known populist methods the Maoists all over, use to mobilise the people.
* Activists of Tharu National Liberation Front (TNLF) and Youth Communist League of Maoists vandalised and torched two government offices ( the District Land Revenue Office and Nepal Electricity Authority office) at Gulariya on 5th May. The next day 45 persons including 35 women and 10 policemen were injured when the TNLF clashed with police with batons and swords when they tried to enter Banke district administrative office and the Banke District Police Office. The Police arrested 13 persons that included Suresh Kumar Chaudhri the central Committee member of TMM and the local representative of All Nepal Peasants Union of Banke Pradip Chaudhry. The idea again here is to mobilse the Tharus who have now distanced themselves from the MJF in the Terai.
* The most serious of all is that the Maoists have refused to cooperate with UNMIN for the second stage of verification of their cadres in various camps. They declared that the will not accept any verification until the party has a political package that consists of 1. Declaration of Nepal as a republic in the parliament. 2. Rescheduling the date for CA elections. 3. Improvement of living conditions at the cantonments. 4. Salary and job guarantees to the combatants. The UN Representative Mr. Ian Martin said that the obligation of the Maoists to allow verification process is unconditional and that the UNMIN cannot accept its linkage to any precondition. Some reports indicate that almost half of the so-called combatants in the cantonments are not eligible to stay in the camps and this can be found out only when a thorough verification is done.
* The Maoists have not returned the seized properties and have not allowed the internally displaced persons to return to their homes. A Senior member of the Maoists- Mohan Vaidya declared that they will not return the properties seized during the conflict and that they will not reduce their numbers in the army either!
G.P.Koirala must be a very worried person and he needs all the support to stand up to the Maoists who are bent upon creating an unsettled situation in Nepal.
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