 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Note no. 397
15.08.2007
NEPAL: More on Dilemma of the Maoists- Update No. 132
By Dr. S.Chandrasekharan.
(May be read along with the previous Update 131)
In the current situation, the Maoists can be compared to a wild tiger that has been caged and is trying to break out of it. Here the cage consists of the 12 point agreement, code of conduct for cease fire, eight point agreement, and the decision of the High Level Leaders of SPA and the CPN (Maoist). Having been used to violence and defiance of law in the ten years of peoples war, they suddenly find themselves restricted by the existing laws of the state and they are desperate as even their first step of restructuring the state has not taken place. Their failure to declare Nepal a republic is a case in point.
Some of the recent incidents that justify this observation are-
On 9th August, some dissidents of Maoists raided a police post in Nuwakot and took away some rifles and ammunition. Immediately the YCL swung into action and on 11th returned the rifles, pistol and the ammunition but not the persons who attacked and took away the weapons. The YCL leadership said that they would deal with the matter themselves when the Police are duty bound to register a case and take the accused into custody.
Some time ago, in Dholakha, YCL cadres beat up very badly the CDO and other government officials besides damaging the office buildings. The Police after due registration of a case for attempted murder arrested the culprits. The Maoists went on a region wide strike for three consecutive days in protest against the arrests when the arrests were lawful and were for committing a very grave crime.
Baburam Bhattarai, a senior Maoist leader admitted that they have been travelling in seized and stolen cars under fake license plates for quite some time now and that they are planning to regularise the registration of vehicles soon!
Following the clash between the NSU (students union affiliated to the Nepali Congress and the ANNISU. (R) affiliated to the Maoists, 40 YCL cadres in battle fatigues were openly marching in the city to disrupt the rallies conducted by the NSU. They were arrested by the Police on 14th August, along with 30 Khukris, five iron rods and knives. It was not that they were not aware that they were committing a crime, but they do not seem to care!
For two weeks consecutively the Maoist MPs have not been attending the Interim Parliament Sessions and on the day they attended (14th) walked out on an issue in which they as part of the government were also responsible. The issue was about government turning a deaf year of their demand to make public a list of those who went missing in the decade long conflict. Will they be willing to accept the list of many civilians who have also disappeared due to the violent acts of the Maoists during the conflict?
For any insurgent unit, cease-fire is the biggest enemy. Besides getting used to easy life, the biggest danger is the mushrooming of breakaway units. In the Terai the two former factions of Maoists, the JTMM of Goit and Jwala Singh are very active and the Maoists are now on the defensive in Terai. One other dissident faction in Nuwakot has been put down. The rank and file also get bolder and this was seen on the questions put before the leadership in the recently held plenum session. The Central Committee meeting that is supposed to take place to consider the implementation of the Plenum decisions has been postponed thrice due to internal differences and it is now fixed for the 15th. The Party is planning to make some structural changes and prepare for state wide mobilisation and peoples movement/revolt in pursuance of the decisions taken in the Plenum.
Prachandas personal popularity and his Prachanda path are also at stake as the leadership has to show some dividends on the cease fire and the peace process. Prachanda path which calls for simultaneous insurrection along with the peoples war has succeeded to some extent in toppling the existing political configuration with the ending of Jana Andolan II. The question is whether Prachanda path would succeed any more with a peoples movement alone when the people of Nepal ravaged by a decade long war and poverty are looking forward to a period of peace and prosperity? At the moment the nation is reeling under unprecedented floods and many countries like USA, Germany, Australia, Denmark and the International Red Cross are pouring in funds to help the distressed. The economy is also in a bad shape now.
Fifth Plenum Decisions:
Though there is no formal press statement, it is learnt that the political report of Prachanda was carried unanimously with very slight amendments. The final decisions on the report appear to be
The Party will not pull out from the government for the present.
The Party will seek a consensus from other political parties and the government for a republic and a proportional system for elections.
The Party will form a republican front and a peoples movement in case there is no consensus on their demand.
Will consider pulling out of the government only if other political parties do not agree to their demands.
The report termed the Nepali Congress and the CPN (UML) as bourgeois parliamentary parties.
Would go to win over Terai on a demand for a federal republic and a proportional representation system.
The main focus of the party now is to press for declaring a republic even before the elections and retrieve its image in the Terai which has been tarnished after the Lahan incident. There is a view that Matrika Prasad Yadav who has a good reputation in Terai as a person of integrity and sincerity has been persuaded to give up his ministers post and concentrate on Terai in the next few months to retrieve the partys image. Without Terais support the party has no chance of winning substantial seats in the coming CA elections.
One may ask- why cannot the Maoists wait for the CA elections to decide on the republic as had been agreed to by them with the seven parties? The reasoning given by the Maoists is that there could be no free and fair elections so long as monarchy exists and therefore the state should be declared a republic before the elections. Have other issues been settled for a free and fair election? Why put unnecessary pressure on a Prime Minister who is ailing these days? The Maoist leadership should think about it.
Home | Papers | Notes | Forum | Search | Feedback | Links
Copyright South Asia Analysis Group
All rights reserved. Permission is given to refer this on-line document for use in research papers and articles, provided the source and the author's name are acknowledged. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes.