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Paper no. 1310
29. 03. 2005
KYRGYZSTAN: THE GREAT GAME MOVES INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL ASIA.
by K. Gajendra Singh
US led Western attempt to usher democracy through revolutionary street power in Kyrgyzstan, after succeeding in Serbia, Georgia and Ukraine has brought the Great Game right into the heart of central Asia.
Kyrgyzstan, a landlocked country of 5 million impoverished people without oil, is strategically located, sharing its eastern border with Chinas turbulent Xinjiang province, populated by ethnic Turkic cousins, Uighurs and has Kazakhstan and Russia in north, Uzbekistan in the west and in south Tajikistan.
The wide spread uprising in Kyrgyzstan, was instigated following disputed parliamentary elections held on Feb. 27 and March 13, first beginning in Osh in south, bordering Uzbekistan, which then spread to the capital Bishkek on 24 March in north, forcing President Askar Akaev to flee to his patrons in Moscow.
Opposition leader Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who led the uprising, was sworn in as Prime Minister and acting President by the new Parliament on 28 March, after a compromise with the old Parliament, which gave way to the new one. He was granted power last week by the old Parliament, which was re-installed by the Supreme Court after the surprise collapse of the government led by Akaev.
The new leaders won support and help from Russian President Vladimir Putin who promised to send emergency aid in food and fuel which it desperately needs. The new leadership promised no radical changes in its foreign policy.
"The coordinates of external policy will be the same. Russia is our close ally and the central Asians are brotherly neighbours... (We will) develop our relations with European countries and the West and first of all with the United States," acting Foreign Minister Roza Otunbayeva told reporters. She said that the new government would stick to agreements with Moscow and Washington, allowing them to keep their military bases in the country. Bakiyev said that the U.S. Ambassador Stephen Young was "one of the first people who came to congratulate me."
Moscow and Washington have a common goal in wanting to preserve stability in the region, concerned about extremist Islamic groups, though the fears are exaggerated to justify authoritarian rulers. The fears focus on the Fergana Valley, considered a hotbed of Islamic fundamentalism. When Afghanistan was controlled by the Taliban, Kyrgyzstan had come under attack in the Fergana Valley from militants led by Osama Bin Ladens associate Juma Namangani, an ethnic Uzbek. The radical Uzbek Hizb-e Tahrir Hizb ut-Tahrir (Party of Liberation) is also active in southern Kyrgyzstan and has a strong following among the young, looking for alternatives to corrupt and authoritarian regimes.
Kyrgyz news agency Kabar posted on its Web site (www.kabar.kg) a statement from Akaev on 28 March, sent from exile in Russia which accused Kyrgyzstan's new leaders of disgracing the country and ruining the economy. It did not indicate whether Akayev would resign or try to return home. Bakiyev said on 28 March that Akaev should return to the country to help end the ongoing crisis.
There was disunity in the opposition during the uprising. We have no difference of opinion. It's just a misunderstanding," said former opposition leader Felix Kulov, when asked about reports of conflict with Bakiyev. Kulov, freed from jail by protesters during mass protests is now one of Kyrgyzstan's most powerful men with control over the security forces. Bakiyev had served as Prime Minister under Akaev between December 2000 and May 2002 when he was forced to resign.
Osh in south has traditionally been at odds with Bishkek in the north. But a few sparks from the inter Kyrgyz conflagration in Osh, which has a sizeable Uzbek minority, with a history of Uzbek-Kyrgyz tensions and rioting, could ignite Kyrgyz- Uzbek conflict and could even engulf the whole of the Fergana valley partitioned between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan by Stalin in 1920s with their mixed populations and enclaves, claims and counter claims. A more probable, and much more worrying scenario, would be Kyrgyzstan spiraling down to something like the Tajik civil war of 1992-97, which caused tens of thousands of victims. British too left similar divisions behind to fester in Palestine, India and Cyprus.
The author has written about US franchised Rose revolution in Georgia, Orange revolution in Ukraine and still unfinished Cedar revolution in Lebanon. The last could bring back inter-communal strife and even civil war, which destroyed this religion and ethnically mixed nation during its 1975-89 civil war. It would adversely impact its 30-35% Christian population, which seems to be in the forefront of the opposition, egged on by USA and France to weaken Syria, next door to US quagmire in Iraq. Similarly the attempt at regime change in Kyrgyzstan to US liking and to have a foothold in this critical region could lead to turmoil. So far Russia and China have played it cool. China might have found Rose, Orange and Cedar revolutions interesting for Russia, but it would not be so amused now with the Tulip or Daffodils, Orange and Yellow names given to the Kyrgyz revolution nearer home singing its own volatile and restive province of Xinjiang.
Andijan in Uzbekistan just across from Osh is the birthplace of Babur who founded the Moghul Empire in India. India has very close cultural and historical relations with the central Asian region known in history as Turkistan. The author felt it when he traveled through the Fergana valley in late 1990s on a lecture tour and its cities like Andijan, Fergana, Margillan, Namangan, birthplace of Juma, with simmering religious and ethnic tensions in the area, right up to Osh.
Till few years ago, President Akaev was USAs poster boy for democracy in the region, for, apart from implementing various reforms, he let USA have a free run of his country including granting a base for possible spying across into China. To reward Akaev, in 1998, USA helped Kyrgyzstan become the first Central Asian republic to join the World Trade Organization. As expected and proved elsewhere, west controlled IMF programme was a disaster in Kyrgyzstan. This and family capitalism led to massive increase in unemployment and further impoverishment of its people, whose frustration was vented during the rioting and the looting.
IMF program was a disaster too in Ukraine, when President Victor Yushchenko was the Prime Minister and who was dismissed by its parliament. Thanks to the IMF, Kyrgyzstan now has the largest debt per capita in Central Asia, $ 2 billion equal to its GDP. If the money goes to cronies here, so it does in Iraq.
Around 15% of Kyrgyz population has been forced to emigrate to find work, mostly in Russia and Kazakhstan. The stagnant economy depends on gold mines, operated by a Canadian company, forming a major chunk of its income and its hydroelectric power, in which China and Pakistan have shown interest. Once touted as the Switzerland of Central Asia it gains some income from tourism.
Pepe Escobar, who traversed the region in 2003 wrote in Asia Times on 26 March that the Tulip Revolution would be cited by the Bush administration as the first "spread of freedom and democracy" success story in Central Asia. The whole arsenal of US foundations - National Endowment for Democracy, International Republic Institute, Ifes, Eurasia Foundation, Inter news, among others - which fueled opposition movements in Serbia, Georgia and Ukraine, has also been deployed in Bishkek. It generated, among other developments, a small army of Kyrgyz youngsters who went to Kiev, financed by the Americans, to get a glimpse of the Orange Revolution, and then became "infected" with the democratic virus.
Practically everything that passes for civil society in Kyrgyzstan is financed by these US foundations, or by the US Agency for International Development (USAID). At least 170 non-governmental organizations charged with development or promotion of democracy have been created or sponsored by the Americans. The US State Department has operated its own independent printing house in Bishkek since 2002 - which means printing at least 60 different titles, including a bunch of fiery opposition newspapers. USAID invested at least $2 million prior to the Kyrgyz elections - quite something in a country where the average salary is $30 a month.Former opposition leader Otunbaeva, and again Foreign Minister and a prot��of USA whose advisers were US citizens admitted publicly that "yes, we are supported by the US". Otunbayeva, known in Kyrgyzstan as the locomotive of the opposition, was Kyrgyzstans ambassador to the USA, Canada and Great Britain, where she established good contacts with the west.
This and other known facts are corroborated by a secret pre election analyses of December 30, 2004 by the U.S. Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Stephen M.Young which was posted on Kirghiz Republics website www.kabar.kg on 19 March, 2005. It fits in with the known facts.
It said that political situation in Kyrgyzstan testifies the growing instability on the threshold of parliamentary elections in the country and with some other external factors have a strong impact upon the political forces arrangement, i.e. influence (besides our geopolitical interests) of Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and to a lesser extent of the EU countries and radical Islamic ideas proliferated from Iran."
It said that public opinion polls by the US Embassy in cooperation with USAID, NDI, IRI, other international organizations including Freedom House, Inter news Network, Soros Foundations and the Eurasia Foundation -- allow us to draw a conclusion that at present none of the states has influence except Russia, because of multiform connections with Akaev, being a prot��of Russia being guided by Moscow. But the Embassy had no facts of Russian financing any candidates or parties.
The report talks of China's interest in the Kyrgyz hydroelectric resources and electric power potential and Kyrgyzstans aims of trade and economic expansion with the Chinese. China finds Our (USAs) military presence in Kyrgyzstan annoying and the temporary status of the (US) air force base at Manas airport in Bishkek gives hope to China for would- be withdrawal of the US troops from Kyrgyzstan, and our counteracting steps of the Chinese government against our military expansion in the region. At present China renders informal support to the politicians disposed to further development of relations with Beijing and restriction of our military contingent in Kyrgyzstan. In addition, Akaevs assistance in the struggle against Uighur separatism and religious extremism is obviously insufficient.
The report also mentions efforts made by Iran and Saudi Arabia to promote Islam in Kyrgyzstan and suggests how to promote US interests by increasing pressure upon Akaev to make him resign ahead of schedule after the parliamentary elections but the present opposition is not strong enough to challenge the present authorities, though Akaev has claimed he is not going to prolong his terms of office.
We know, Akaevs adherents suspect the opposition to prepare the same scenario of elections like that one in Georgia and Ukraine. That was indirectly asserted by Akaev at December meeting of the Council of. Defense Akaev is most likely to take advantage of the assistance rendered by the Russian-speaking part of the population and other ethnic minorities, as well as of several thousand residents who are earning in Russia now. -- Russia remains the basic employer in Kyrgyzstan. Both the pro-Russian public opinion and popularity of the Russian president are rather strong in some northern regions of the country.
It continued that two formations in the political arena would nominate candidates for the presidency. First the block For Powers of People which united six opposition parties in July 2004 and nominated K.Bakiev, ex-prime minister and MP, as their single candidate for the presidential post. The Ambassador continued, I think he is the most acceptable candidate in the aspect of fruitful development of relations between the USA and Kyrgyzstan. I met Bakiev on repeated occasions. Bakiev expressed his consent to take advantage of the support after his blocks winning in parliamentary elections . Among the other significant political leaders we name M.Ashirkulov, the former secretary of Security Council, and F.Kulov, who is currently imprisoned. They represent a newly founded party the Civic Union For Fair Elections.
-F.Kulov, whose imprisonment will end in the middle of 2005 is --enjoying deserved popularity and being a victim of regime, he will have sufficient potential to struggle for the presidency. F.Kulov shares and adheres to American concepts of freedom and democracy and can be viewed as a dubbing candidate for the presidency in case our main candidate Bakiev is defeated.We have mostly succeeded in developing contacts with another leader of the opposition R. Otunbaeva, ex-Minister for Foreign Affairs. Through the funds allocated to her we managed to lobby setting up and promoting certain NGOs as well as organizing a unified system of mass media for better coverage over the country to spread her statement about non-interference of Russia in internal affairs of Kyrgyzstan.
To discredit Akaev, the embassys Democratic commission, Soros Foundations, Eurasia Foundation in Bishkek in cooperation with USAID have been organizing politically active groups of voters in order to inspire riots against pro-president candidates. We have set up and opened financing for an independent printing office the Media Support center and AKI press news agency to interpret impartially the course of the elections and minimize state mass media propaganda impact. We also render financial support to promising non-governmental tele- and radio companies.
In conclusion it recommends to increase the amount of financial support up to $30 m to promising opposition parties at the preliminary stage of the parliamentary and presidential elections and allocate additional funds to NGOs including the National Democratic Institute, the International Republican Institute, Freedom house, Inter-news Network and Eurasia Foundation, since they have reached significant results within the framework of informing the population on preparation for the election and on the process of political forces consolidation.
, We view the country (Kyrgyzstan) as the base to advance with the process of democratization in Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and to limit Chinese and Russian capabilities in the area ---- we should attract groups of independent observers from western humanitarian organizations, OSCE, and people from Kyrgyz offices of the UN Program of Development. That is necessary: to get control of the election process and eliminate any possible financing of the pro - presidential majority in the parliament .
India and the revolution in Kyrgyzstan;
India has very close cultural and historical relations with the region known in history as Turkistan. Most of Turks who settled and ruled in India came from this region. Central Asian republics have long common history and shared cultural values with south Asia .In fact culturally, linguistically, ethnically and spiritually no other regions and people have so much in common. It is an area with a continuous history and cradle of many civilizations and world religions, where Indo-Iranian and Ural- Altaic languages mingled with each other and local languages producing a mosaic of tongues. For example Turkic and Hindustani languages share thousands of common words and have influenced each others grammar. There are 400 words from Turkic languages in Hindustani. Many Turks and Mongols were Buddhists before Islam was brought to Central Asia which influenced the Sufi strands in Islam. Turkish languages had borrowed many Buddhist words, terms and conceptions from Prakit and Sanskrit.
During 16th century AD, traders moved freely in the empires of the Moghuls of Hindustan, Uzbek Shaybani Khans of Khawarizm on Aral Sea (Uzbekistan), Shia Safavids of Iran and Ottomans of Turkey right into central Europe. A hundi (based on hawala system still in use) issued in Delhi bazaar was valid in Istanbul or Bukhara or Andijan. Apples, pomegranates, melons and other fruits from Bukhara could be bought in Delhis bazaars during the Moghul rule. Babur said how he missed the delicious melons from Fergana, which the author can vouchsafe following his own travels in Fergana valley..
Capital cities like Tashkent, Bishkek, and Dushanbe are by air closer to Delhi than is Chennai, thus underlining the strategic importance of the region for India as well. But the events in Kyrgyzstan have created little stir or interest in India. The country has remained immersed in watching a cricket test match with Pakistan in Bangalore, which it lost ignobly without even putting up a semblance of fight .
(K Gajendra Singh is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies. The views expressed here are his own.- Email-Gajendrak@hotmail.com)
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