Paper no. 1695	07. 02. 2006
UNITED STATES-IRAN CONFRONTATION: THE STRATEGIC IMPULSES by Dr. Subhash Kapila Introductory Observation The United States has been in an unremitting state of confrontation with Iran ever since 1979 when the Islamic Revolution overthrew the American prot�� the Shah of Iran. In United States security perceptions, Irans Islamic Revolution challenged the American predominance in the Gulf Region and the Middle East in two different ways. In one shock blow, the overthrow of the Shah of Iran knocked out a vital pillar of the United States "Two Pillar" security architecture in the Gulf. The other pillar of the American strategy was Saudi Arabia. The second major concern was that Irans Islamic Revolution would in its wake generate similar Islamic radicalism in the Arab monarchies of the Gulf, which also were the props of the United States. In the twenty six years that have followed, two things emerge clearly. The United States has not been able to discover an alternative to Iran, as a pillar of Gulf security. This has placed an additional burden on the United States in terms of direct committal of US military forces in the Gulf region. United States second major concern was that an epidemic of Islamic Revolutions would engulf the Gulf Region. It did not happen that way as the Islamic Revolution in Iran was and had a distinctly Shia Moslem flavour. It arose from the breach that had occurred in Iranian society between the Shah and his ruling coterie and the masses of Iranian populace and also due to the US support for the former. But what did overtake the United States in the Gulf Region was the Wahabi-inspired Islamic Jehadi terrorism of the Al Qaeda variety. Ironically, this rabidly anti-US campaign resulting in 9/11 demonic outrage, in USA proper, resulted from acts of commission and omission by two of the closest American allies, namely Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Iran, except for its support to the Hezbollah and Hamas terrorism groups, which are largely Israel-centric, cannot be accused for the following Middle East and Islamic Jehadi turbulence directed against USA: Al Qaeda and its global terrorism campaign. Taliban Afghanistan as a major base for Al Qaeda and Pakistans ISI infrastructure located there to have a deniability exit. Iraqs defiance of USA under Saddam Hussein leading to the two Gulf Wars. Iran is being targeted strongly today on its nuclear programme issue by the United States and the West. It is a continued manifestation of the United States implacable confrontation with Iran. The Middle East and Gulf Region strategic environment needs to by reviewed to analyse as to what are the strategic impulses that drive to keep the United States-Iran confrontation alive. Middle East and Gulf Region Security Environment Obtainable Today Rather than discussing military balance details of the region, for the purposes of this analysis, it would suffice to state some major observations, which have a bearing on the theme of this paper. Significantly, the security environment in the region is governed by the following: Iran enjoys military predominance in the Gulf Region and Israel in the East Mediterranean region of the Middle East. Iraq, which provided countervailing power to Irans predominance stands crushed by United States two Gulf Wars. The entire region is the worlds most highly militarised region and which boasts of advanced technology military hardware and ballistic missile arsenals. In terms of a nuclear arsenal, Israel has one, though undeclared. The United States fears that Iran is inching towards one, solely so assessed that it would be a natural corollary to any peaceful civilian nuclear energy programme. The United States has no countervailing options that can be developed against Iran. The United States, itself, has to provide this by its own military presence. Some other observations also are in order here, and these are: United States strategic formulations in the Middle East are Israel-centric. This at times leads to strategic distortions in its perceptions. Israel cannot be the countervailing power in the region as no Islamic nation would join it as an ally, even against Shia Iran. Russia and China, today have strong strategic footholds and investments in Iran. United States is finding it militarily expensive to hold on to Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran with or without nuclear weapons can never match American military predominance. In terms of military flash-points existing in the region or those that have the potential to become one, the following need to be noted: Israel-Syria confrontation. Israel-Iran political hostility. Iran-Saudi Arabia competition for political leadership in the region and in the Islamic world. Iran-UAE territorial dispute over islands in the Gulf. A combination of above factors fuel the mutual threat perceptions of the United States and Iran and lead to the continuation of the United States - Iran confrontation. The impulses for this confrontation are basically strategic, as will emerge in the ensuing strategic analysis. Since Iran is militarily incapable of posing a direct strategic challenge to the United States and can be said to be more in a reactive mode in this confrontation, the United States threat perceptions arising form Iran are discussed first. United States Threat Perceptions Arising From Iran In the present din generated by USA and EU3 to haul Iran to the UN Security Council on its nuclear progamme issue, the larger strategic issue is being missed. The United States is not worried about any potential Iranian nuclear arsenal knowing that it will take yet another decade to materialise. Even on materialisation, Iran would be severely constrained by the American military preponderance to resort to nuclear adventurism. The main strategic impulse that formulates US threat perceptions arising from Iran is the emergence of "Iran as a regional power in the Gulf Region" and its consequent effects on US national interests in the region. The contours of American concerns emerge clearly from the testimony of US National Intelligence Director, Negroponte before the Senate Select Intelligence Committee on February 2, 2006. The following observations are noteworthy: "Iran is enhancing its ability to project its military power in order to threaten to disrupt the operations and reinforcement of United States forces based in the region, potentially intimidating regional allies into withholding support for United States policy towards Iran, and raising the costs of our regional presence for United States--- for us and our allies". Iran is amassing conventional power and has links to terrorist groups in part to keep United States military power at bay. Iran has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, and views them as an "integral part of its strategy to deter--- and if necessary retaliate against forces in the region, including United States forces. "The danger that it will acquire a nuclear weapon and the ability to integrate with its ballistic missiles Iran already possesses is a reason for immediate concern". Iran does not now appear interested in a war with the United States, but its desire for deterrence appears intended to enable Teheran to conduct aggressive activities. Specially, on Irans nuclear weapons programme, the testimony reflected: US intelligence community suspects that Iran has an active nuclear weapons programme that yet cannot produce nuclear weapons. "We judge that Teheran probably does not have a nuclear weapon and probably has not yet produced or acquired necessary fissile material." The two taken together indicate that USA has immediate strategic concerns arising from Irans conventional military predominance in the Gulf Region and an overriding concern that Iran should be prevented from adding the nuclear weapons power to its existing conventional military predominance. Both these concerns provide the strategic impulses for United States continual state of confrontation with Iran. Primarily, the other major strategic impulse underlying American confrontation with Iran is that Iran has provided a revived strategic foothold in the Gulf Region to a resurgent Russia and to an increasingly assertive China. Both are nuclear powers and presently engaged in challenging USAs uni-polar predominance. The United States may be perceiving threateningly the emergence of a Russia-China-Iran axis in the Middle East. Irans Threat Perceptions Arising From the United States Iran perceives itself as the naturally pre-eminent power in the Gulf Region, endowed with the major attributes of power as defined by Morgenthau. It was the United States itself which fostered this perception up to the 1970s, and embarked on the military build-up of Iran as the regional pillar of US security in the Gulf and to act as the American surrogate regional policeman in the Gulf. United States confrontation with Iran commenced in 1979 when the Shah of Iran was toppled by the Iranian masses. From then on Iran stands continually besieged by the United States politically, militarily and economically. United States thereafter ensured the total isolation of Iran. United States strategic concerns on Iran in the incipient stages of the Islamic Republic were not military, but political, in that this new ideology of "Islamic Revolution" would engulf the traditional American support base in the Gulf provided by oil-rich Sheikhdoms. Besides other destabilising initiatives to bring down the clerical regime in Iran, the United States strongly supported Iraq in the eight year long war it imposed on Iran. Iranian threat perceptions emerging from the United States was a natural corollary to having been put under total American siege even when Iran was not in a position to do any thing. Today the security environment for Iran has become even more troublesome and threatening as manifested by the following developments. US and NATO military presence on Irans eastern flank in Afghanistan US military occupation of Iraq on Irans western flank. US security linkages with the Caucasian states in Irans north. Pakistan as a nuclear-weapons states and a major Non-NATO ally of the United States, with contiguity to Iran. United States strategic and political postures and the utterances of the American leadership, all strongly indicate that: USA has wanted a regime-change in Iran, all along. USA is committed not to permit emergence of Iran as a regional power. Irans strategic impulses, directly reactive to the above, has been to challenge the United States on both counts. Iran has given shape to its challenge by: Embarking on a conventional military build-up from the early 1990s. Shaping its military reserve for asymmetrical warfare in addition to its regular forces. Building up a long range ballistic missile arsenal with indigenous production capabilities. Political and financial support to Islamic terrorist organisations like Hamas and Hezbollah opposed to Israel. Reviving Irans nuclear progamme in the mid-1990s. It had been discontinued in 1979 with the overthrow of the Shah. Enhancing its air defence capabilites and coastal defence capabilities. Irans strategic impulses to confront the United States stand hardened by rising Iranian nationalism (as a consequence of US demonisation of Iran) and its ample oil resources which it is using now as an effective political weapon. Geo-politically and geo-strategically, both Russia and China lend weight to Iranian strategic confrontation and aspirations aspirations. Conclusions: Major Deductions from US-Iran Confrontation Any analysis of this type should throw up deductions from which policy planners can draw appropriate lessons. Major deductions from the United States-Iran confrontation can be listed as under: United States-Iran confrontation is not ideological; it is more determined by geo-political and geo-strategic considerations. The United States as the main proponent of this confrontation, despite its superior predominance, has been unable to undo the Islamic Revolution, or bring about a regime change. Iran, on the contrary, has been able to build up its conventional military strength, ballistic missile arsenal and may be a nuclear weapons arsenal in the future. While Iran stands besieged on both flanks by US and NATO military forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, it can be said that USA cannot bring order there without Iranian cooperation and assistance. The United States may like to ponder whether a continued US-Iran confrontation has not become counter-productive. An inescapable strategic reality is that there cannot be any Middle East peace with Iran excluded from the process. Strategically, Iran is the pivot on which Middle East security revolves. May be the time has come for a US-Iran political rapprochement. The imperatives for this stand spelt out in this authors paper: United States Imperatives for Rapprochement with Iran: A Perspective Analysis (SAAG Paper No. 1352, dated 28/04/2005). (The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email: drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com)
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