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Paper no. 2412
12-Oct-2007
PAKISTAN: THE STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS ARISING FROM THE NEW TROIKA
by Dr. Subhash Kapila
Introductory Observations
Pakistans autumn of 2007 is witnessing the regrettable spectacle of an illegitimate Presidency being imposed by external powers along with a contrived governance troika of General Musharraf, as a President in civilian clothes, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto absolved of corruption charges by an Ordinance signed by the military dictator as the next Prime Minister and General Ashfaq Kiyani as the new Chief of Army Staff of the Pakistan Army entrusted with underwriting the existence of the new governance troika.
General Musharraf has been an illegitimate self-appointed President of Pakistan for the last eight years. At every stage he has re-invented his indispensability to serve the strategic interests of external powers. General Musharraf has once again convinced the external powers which control Pakistans destiny that without him at the helm, Pakistan could become a strategic liability for them.
Succumbing to such fears raised by him General Musharraf and he brutally suppressing the demonstrations for restoration of democracy in Pakistan he has managed with external support to contrive his continuance in power as the President for the next five years. Constitutional respectability of a questionable nature has been sought to be imparted by the Legal Framework Order decreed by him after his military coup, re-election by outgoing Assemblies rigged by him in 2002 and now ending their tenure, and Pakistans Supreme Court seeming to opt for the doctrine of necessity out of sheer coercive pressure by the military ruler.
So in the autumn of 2007, what does one find in Pakistan? The picture obtainable today is:
- A politically illegitimate President of Pakistan in whose so-called re-election the people of Pakistan did not participate.
- Political popularity of General Musharraf is at its lowest ebb in Pakistan. His duration at the helm of Pakistan till 2012 will not rest on popular Pakistani will but at the strategic pleasure of external powers.
- The emerging governance troika in Pakistan is being termed in Pakistan as an Americanized Troika.
- The emerging governing troika is a politically and morally tainted one except for the new Army Chief. General Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto stand morally and politically tainted by their record of broken political pledges made to the people of Pakistan. Benazir Bhutto has been in exile to evade corruption charges and conviction. Musharraf becomes an accessory and accomplice to the fact by pardoning her through an Ordinance as part of the political deal to contrive the new troika.
- General Kiyani gets politically tainted in Pakistan as a political stooge of the United States. Pakistani news papers indicate that he has been in touch with the US Secretary of State from November 2006.
Essentially, the new troika continues to be a Pakistan Army- dominated one with Benazir Bhutto added as a civilian lightweight to give a fa�de of democracy.
In the past one of the bogeys that has been consistently raised in terms of regional and global security has been the dangers of Pakistans nuclear weapons arsenal falling into the hands of Pakistans Islamic fundamentalists or rogue elements of the Pakistan Army.
Where is the guarantee that the emerging governance troika of Pakistan comprising of military and political adventurers would prove to be safe custodians of Pakistans nuclear weapons arsenal? Yes, if this troika entrusts Pakistans nuclear weapons arsenal to safe custody of the United States, then one could concede that dangers to global and regional security would cease.
Coming to the main theme of this paper, one needs to examine the strategic implications of an illegitimate Presidency in Pakistan on the strategic interests of the United States, Afghanistan, Iran, China and India.
United States: The Major Strategic Implications
The United States as the principal patron of the Musharraf-Benazir Bhutto combine and having strategically invested in Pakistan heavily since 9/11 stands the risk of being impacted sharply by the uncertainties of an illegitimate presidency in Pakistan.
The United States must face the facts that the newly contrived political dispensation in Pakistan cannot be expected to last out till 2012. In its very composition, the political stakes are predominantly stacked against the United States.
Any or a combination of the following events can take place in Pakistan as a reaction to the present illegitimate political imposition (1) General Musharraf is assassinated (2) General Musharraf is eased out of power by Pakistan Army (3) Benazir Bhutto breaks away from the political combine (4) Intensification of separatist movements in Pakistans explosive western frontiers (5) Rise in Islamic Jihadi terrorism and suicide attacks on the Pakistan Army.
As this author has pointed out in a number of his earlier papers, the resultant situation in Pakistan for the United States would be reminiscent of the Shah of Iran in 1979. The Shah of Iran too was treated as an indispensable strategic asset of the United States like Musharraf is being perpetuated now.
In short, the end-game of the United States in terms of major strategic impact would be that Pakistan turns into a strategic liability for the United States like Afghanistan and Iraq today.
With Pakistani public opinion sidelined in American strategic calculations today, another likely prospect that Pakistan like Iran could become a long term adversarial nation with a nuclear weapons arsenal.
Some analysts have gone to the extent that any Sino-US armed conflict in the future could likely be over Pakistan rather than Taiwan as Pakistani public shifts away from USA to a full Chinese embrace in reactive anger.
The Impact on Afghanistan
Afghanistan is one country which is likely to be impacted most heavily by the emergence of the Musharraf-Benazir Bhutto combine and the new troika in general.
The credentials of Benazir Bhutto and General Musharraf in relation to the Taliban (which is the main threat to stability in Afghanistan) are dubious.
The Taliban as a potent force to further Pakistani interests in Afghanistan was created in the regime of Benazir Bhutto as Prime Minister of Pakistan. General Musharraf was then her Director General of Military Operations. He operationalised the Taliban for execution of Pakistans military designs in Afghanistan and creating a Pakistani proxy regime there.
With both Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto in power in Pakistan,once again they can be logically expected to proactively pursue Pakistani interests in Afghanistan through the Taliban, especially when it is a prime agenda of the Pakistan Army?
The approach of the Mushrraf-Bhutto combine towards ensuring Pakistans primacy in Afghanistan can be expected to be two fold(1) Political persuasion of the United States to pesssurize President Karzai to co-opt the Taliban in the governing structure (2) Prod and assist Taliban in stepping up military activities in Southern Afghanistan to destabilize the Karzai regime.
On both counts, the strategic interests of the United States, NATO and Afghanistans emergence as a moderate democratic Muslim nation are likely to suffer at Pakistans hands.
The Implications for Iran
Iraq with its de-stabilized political and military situation can no longer provide a secure base for any United States military intervention in Iran. The confrontational rhetoric between USA and Iran is getting shriller and military strikes by USA as an option cannot be ruled out.
In the given situation, Pakistan will be called upon to provide the main base for US strikes against Iran supplementing the US war effort from aircraft carriers within and outside the Gulf.
Iran should read the signs realistically. The Musharraf-Bhutto combine at the helm as political prot�� of the United States would be hard pressed to deny Pakistan as a base for US military operations against, Iran. In any case the Musharraf regime has been permitting US Special Forces teams to operate in Iran from Pakistani territory.
The flip-side of the coin is that what does the United States do in case Pakistan under pressure of domestic public opinion, Islamist parties pressure and pressure from Pakistan Army shies away from its role as an enduring ally of USA?
China: The Biggest Gainer from the Ongoing Situation in Pakistan
The emerging troika in Pakistan may be an Americanized Troika as perceived within Pakistan. However, there is a caveat here. It is a troika which is likely to continue as an Americanized Troika only and up till the time the United States imparts political legitimacy to it and assists their perpetuation in power.
If this troika is pressurized by the United States to deliver on the strategic agenda that America has in view to bring them into power, the troika can be expected to become a China Prot�� Troika.
One wonders as to why the United States policy establishment and think-tanks do not deliberate on this eventuality openly?
Pakistan has deep strategic ties with China generated by mutual convergence of strategic interests and in the case of Pakistan an eternal gratitude to China for providing it willingly with the sinews of its power-nuclear weapons and missiles arsenal.
China stands to be the biggest gainer from the emerging troika in Pakistan; let us not forget that while the Pakistan army and Musharraf have strong links with China, it was the Bhutto family which crafted Pakistans pro-China polices and a strategic tie-up besides brokering the Sino-US rapprochement.
India: The Major Implications
It would be futile for India to think that an Americanized Troika in Pakistan would not endanger Indias military interests for fear of US displeasure. In fact the contrary could turn out to be true.
In these last two weeks, General Musharraf has not made exactly any friendly statements towards India. He has accused India of participating in the fomenting of separatist troubles in Baluchistan and NWFP.
The emerging troika is likely to face violent turbulence in Pakistan which it will find hard to control militarily. As it is General Musharraf is facing stiff armed resistance on its peripheries which looks to penetrate the hinterland. Military solution by the new establishment in Pakistan would generate further turbulence and armed attacks on the Pakistan Army.
It has been the historical record that whenever domestic turbulence in Pakistan threatens to get out of control, Pakistan military rulers tend to divert domestic attention to military adventurism against India.
In current circumstances, while an all out war is not a possibility, dangers exist of Pakistan embarking on a greater de-stabilization in Kashmir, stoking active insurgencies in the North-East and intensified terrorist activity in the Indian heartland through Pakistan funded sleeper cells. The terrorist attack yesterday at the much revered Muslim Sufi shrine at Ajmer is the latest example.
All in all, a worsening internal security situation within India and proxy war or the peripheries seems to be distinct possibility arising from the emergence of a new military dominated troika in Pakistan notwithstanding that it is an American creation.
Concluding Observations
The inherent contradiction in the combination, nature and attitudinal inclinations of the new Pakistan governing dispensation does not augur well for South Asian and regional stability.
The record of the Musharraf military regime in serving United States strategic interests has been dubious. Osama Bin Laden continues to be esconced in a Pakistani city (as remarked yesterday by former DG, ISI, Lt General Durraun), the Taliban continue to de-stabilize US interests in Afghanistan and China continues to enlarge its strategic hold over Pakistan.
The United States by adding Benazir Bhutto to the Pakistan Army duo of General Musharraf even without uniform and General Kiyani does not necessarily ensure its strategic interests by a predominantly military troika. This new troika is likely to generate added political turbulence and armed militancy in Pakistan to the detriment of the United States.
(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com)
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